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2014年07月25日 【我要咨询】 】 来源:清华在线

  Moscow and Washington are locked in an information war to explain what happened to Flight MH17 and its 298 passengers following the tragic downing of the aircraft in a wheat field in eastern Ukraine last week. US intelligence officials took the unusual step on Tuesday of briefing the media about the evidence they believe ties the crash to a missile fired from territory controlled by pro-Russian militants.上周,马航MH17航班不幸坠毁于乌克兰东部的一片麦田里。为争夺对航班及其298名乘客遭遇的解释话语权,莫斯科和华盛顿打起了一场信息战。

  It was an attempt to take control of what officials call “the narrative”, following efforts by the Russian defence ministry to discredit the US version.周二,美国情报官员一反常态,特意召开新闻发布会,公布了他们相信此次坠毁与从亲俄武装分子控制地区发射的一枚导弹有关的证据。

  “It is a classic effort to blame the victims,” a senior US intelligence official said of the Russian claims. “We are seeing a full-court press by the Russian government to instruct affiliated or friendly elements to manipulate the media environment to spread Russia’s version of the story.”美方此举旨在取得官员们所称的“叙事”的控制权,此前俄罗斯国防部反驳了美国版说法。

  The crash has created a quandary for the US intelligence community. While officials express confidence in its conclusions, its failures before the 2003 Iraq war affect its willingness to enter public debates.针对俄方的说法,美国情报部门的一位高官表示:“这是典型的责怪受害者的做法。我们看到俄罗斯政府采取全场紧逼防守战术,指示各下属单位或友好团体操纵媒体环境,以传播俄罗斯的故事版本。”

  At the same time, the US is concerned that if it releases too much of the data it has collected from satellites and other tools, it will reveal its intelligence capabilities to the Russians.马航事件让美国情报界左右为难。尽管官员们表示相信情报部门的推论,但由于在2003年伊拉克战争爆发前情报工作的失败,情报界人士并不太愿意参与公共辩论。

  Also striking is the extent to which the White House relies on postings on social media and YouTube to buttress its argument, including tweets by separatist commanders and videos of weapons movements, rather than classified information gathered by the Pentagon.与此同时,美国担心,如果过多发布利用卫星和其他工具收集到的数据,将会向俄罗斯暴露自身的情报能力。

  “Everybody will be releasing their imagery very, very selectively,” says Keir Giles, a Russia expert at the international affairs think-tank Chatham House. “No one will want to be too explicit about what they have seen with their satellites. They won’t want to give away capabilities.”还有一点也引人注目,白宫大量引用社交媒体和YouTube上的帖子,包括乌克兰叛军指挥官在Twitter上发布的帖子和有关武器动向的视频,而不是五角大楼收集到的机密信息来佐证己方的结论。

  The disclosure of elements of the US assessment comes after Russia’s military claimed to have debunked evidence that separatists were to blame.英国皇家国际事务研究所(Chatham House)的俄罗斯专家基尔?贾尔斯(Keir Giles)表示:“各方都会非常有选择性地发布影像。没有人愿意开诚布公地讲述他们通过自己的卫星看到的东西,他们不希望暴露自己的实力。”

  They said they could prove a Buk-M1 missile launcher was in Kiev-controlled Krasnoarmeisk, not rebel-controlled Krasnodon. The claim echoed near-identical blog posts on pro-Moscow social media outlets. But analysts said that while a photograph of a missile battery showed trolley bus lines, there are no trolley buses in Krasnoarmeisk.在美方公布支持自己观点的材料之前,俄罗斯军方宣称已经戳穿了有关乌克兰分裂势力击落MH17的证据。

  At the same briefing, the chief of the main operations directorate, Lieutenant-General Andrei Kartapolov said a Ukrainian Su-25 jet had flown close to MH17.他们表示,他们可以证明有一个“山毛榉”(Buk-M1)导弹发射装置就位于乌克兰政府控制的克拉诺阿梅斯克城(Krasnoarmeisk),而不是叛军控制的克拉斯诺顿(Krasnodon)。这种指控与亲俄社交媒体上几乎一模一样的博客帖子相呼应。但分析师表示,在一张导弹电池部件的图片上有无轨电车线,但克拉诺阿梅斯克城没有无轨电车。

  Shortly after he made his claim, users of Wikipedia with IP addresses used by the Russian government were found to have been editing the entry for the Su-25 fighter to increase its operating altitude.在同一场新闻发布会上,俄军总参谋部行动总局局长安德烈?卡尔塔波罗夫(Andrei Kartapolov)中将表示,乌克兰一架苏-25战机曾飞到距离MH17很近的地方。

  “There are many components of what has been happening that are straight out of the Soviet info ops playbook,” says Nigel Inkster, director of transnational threats at the International Institute for Security Studies and former assistant chief of MI6, the British foreign intelligence service.在他发表上述评论后不久,有人发现维基百科(Wikipedia)用户编辑了有关苏-25战机的词条,上调了该战机的作战高度,而这些用户的IP地址是俄罗斯政府所使用的。

  “It’s been absolutely classic in terms of them securing their own information space – making sure the other guys’ narrative has no room to play out – and then putting out their own narrative as forcefully and ubiquitously as possible.”国际安全研究所(International Institute for Security Studies)跨国威胁主管奈杰尔?英克斯特(Nigel Inkster)表示:“许多说法直接出自苏联的信息战剧本。”英克斯特曾担任英国对外情报机构军情六处(MI6)的副处长。

  The US response has been to ridicule Russian claims.“这是他们获取信息空间的十分典型的做法——确保其他人没有阐述自己说法的空间——随后就会尽可能铺天盖地地讲述自己的故事。”

  According to information verified by US officials, Ukraine could not have shot down the aircraft because its SA-11 missile systems were out of range.美国的回应是嘲笑俄罗斯的说法。

  The US also says claims a Ukrainian Su-25 shot down flight MH17 are implausible because the photographic evidence shows a missile was fired from the ground.根据美国官员证实的信息,乌克兰不可能击落MH17航班,因为其SA-11导弹系统射程不够。


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