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2014联考英语阅读扩展:普京可能用伊朗牵制美国(双语)

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2014年04月02日 【我要咨询】 】 来源:清华在线

  Russia fires warning shot to hit US where it hurts on Iran

  As Russia sped ahead with the annexation of Crimea and the US drew up more sanctions to punish Moscow, American and Russian officials were last week working side by side in Vienna as if unaffected by the unfolding drama of the new cold war.上周,正当俄罗斯加快吞并克里米亚的步伐,且美国在起草更多制裁来惩罚俄罗斯政府之际,美俄两国官员却在维也纳并肩合作,已经拉幕的新冷战大戏仿佛丝毫没影响到他们。

  Emerging from a round of international talks with Iran on downsizing its nuclear ambitions, US officials expressed satisfaction that their Russian colleagues had acted constructively.在与伊朗进行有关削减核计划的新一轮国际谈判中,美国官员对俄罗斯同事的建设性表现感到满意。

  Moscow, said a senior US official, had no interest in Iran obtaining a nuclear bomb or in an escalation in tensions in the Gulf. Moscow takes part in the Iran negotiations for its interests, he noted, not those of the US.一位美国高官表示,俄罗斯政府对伊朗掌握核弹或海湾紧张局势升级都丝毫不感兴趣,他们参与伊朗谈判是为了自己的利益,而不是为美国的。

  Yet, it would be wishful thinking to assume that if the crisis over Ukraine continues to deteriorate, it will not seep through Russian policy towards the Middle East and affect Iran, primarily because that is where the US would be hurt most.但我们不能一厢情愿地假设,即便乌克兰危机继续恶化,也不会波及俄罗斯的中东政策,从而影响到伊朗,这可是美国最大的罩门。

  Motivated by fierce nationalism and a deep sense of historic injustice, for which he blames the west, Russian president Vladimir Putin has been lashing out with little apparent regard for the consequences. If cornered, he will be tempted to use all the levers at his disposal to retaliate against western sanctions.俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔 普京(Vladimir Putin)的行事动机是激进的民族主义,和对历史不公的深刻认知(他将之归咎于西方),他明显不顾及后果地发起了猛烈攻击。如果被逼入绝境,他将倾向运用一切自己能支配的手段,来回敬西方的制裁。

  “If you look at this rationally there no reason why Russians would want to undermine the [nuclear] talks in any way but . . . at this point you can’t count on him [Putin] making calculations of cost and benefit,” says Robert Einhorn, a former US negotiator with Iran.美国前任伊朗谈判代表罗伯特 埃因霍恩(Robert Einhorn)说:“从理性角度而言,俄罗斯没理由以任何方式去破坏(核)谈判……但现在这个关头上你不能指望他(普京)还会计算利益得失。”

  Despite Russian good behaviour in Vienna, Moscow’s representatives left with a warning shot, with a senior official say-ing that Russia might have to use the nuclear talks “as an element in the game of raising the stakes”.尽管俄方在维也纳表现良好,其代表们却在离开时留下警告。一位高官表示,俄罗斯或许不得不利用核谈判“作为增加筹码的一个元素”。

  Fyodor Lukyanov, a foreign policy expert in Moscow, says he expects a tightening of Russian relations with Iran and more intensive supplies of arms to Syria, where Moscow has been propping up the Assad regime.俄罗斯外交政策专家费奥多尔 卢基扬诺夫(Fyodor Lukyanov)表示,他预期俄罗斯与伊朗的关系会更加紧密,而且俄会增加对叙利亚的武器供给。俄罗斯政府一直在支持叙利亚阿萨德政权。

  “Russia will see no reason at all to ease US troubles in the Middle East,” Mr Lukyanov pre-dicts. But to what extent could Russia damage western interests  With-drawing from the Iran nuclear talks would be futile. But Moscow could try to weaken western re-solve and embolden Iran.卢基扬诺夫预言:“俄罗斯没有任何理由要去减轻美国在中东的麻烦。”但是俄罗斯对西方利益能造成多大程度的伤害?撤出伊朗核谈判不会有多大影响。但俄罗斯政府可以设法弱化西方的决心,并为伊朗壮胆。

  Experts are most wor-ried about the potential for new Russian arms sales, in particular the long-range S-300 air defence missile system deal that was cancelled in 2010 under US pressure.专家们最担心的,是俄罗斯可能启动新的武器销售,尤其是恢复2010年在美国压力下作废的远程S-300防空导弹系统交易。

  “This is the one card that [the Russians] have,” argues Cliff Kupchan, analyst at Eurasia Group, the risk researchers and consultants. “The S-300 can be a game changer; it would reduce Israel’s ability to attack Iran.”“这是(俄罗斯)手里的一张牌。”风险研究及咨询机构欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)的分析师克利夫 库普钱(Cliff Kupchan)认为,“S-300可以改变游戏规则,它会降低以色列攻击伊朗的能力。”

  Also troubling, but with less impact, are possible Russian moves to under-mine the sanctions regime that contributed to Teh-ran’s decision to negotiate.另一个影响较小,但也让专家忧虑的是,俄罗斯可能会破坏促使伊朗政府决定谈判的制裁机制。

  Moscow, for example, could give a green light for banks to resume transactions with entities in Tehran, or it could re-vive mooted trade accords opposed by the US.比如,俄罗斯政府可以给银行开绿灯,允许它们重启与德黑兰实体的交易,或者恢复以前在美国反对下没有完成的贸易协定。

  A barter agreement allowing Iran to sell its oil to Russia in exchange for goods and equipment has been rumoured for months. While some exp-erts doubt such a strategy would be effective – and Iran’s oil ministry is said to be sceptical about the deal – Mark Fitzpatrick, non-proliferation analyst at London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies, says breaking the oil embargo could encou-rage China and others to ignore the sanctions, and give Iran more incentive to maintain a hardline position in the talks.几个月来一直有传闻伊朗和俄罗斯将签订易货贸易协定,允许伊朗将石油卖给俄罗斯,以换取物资和设备。尽管有些专家质疑这类策略是否有效,而且据传伊朗石油部对此项交易持怀疑态度,但伦敦国际战略研究所(International Institute for Strategic Studies)的防扩散分析专家马克 菲茨帕特里克(Mark Fitzpatrick)表示,打破石油禁运可能鼓励中国及其他国家忽视制裁,并激励伊朗更加坚持在谈判中的强硬立场。

  This field of new possibilities is probably being closely studied in Tehran, where attempts to exploit divisions among world powers have long been a favoured tactic.伊朗政府大概正在仔细研究上述种种新可能性,利用世界大国的分歧向来是他们青睐的策略。

  But Iranian officials also appear mindful that the east-west tensions could be a minefield. They have trod a cautious line in their reaction to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, with some commentators expressing hope that Europe’s need to reduce reliance on Russian gas offered opportunity for Iran’s struggling energy sector.但伊朗官员似乎也注意到,东西阵营之间的紧张局势可能是一处危险的雷区。他们在俄罗斯吞并克里米亚一事上采取了谨慎的态度,一些评论员表示,欧洲降低对俄罗斯天然气依赖的需要,希望能给伊朗苦苦挣扎的能源部门带来机会。

  Despite the short-term benefits of closer ties with Russia, Iran’s objective in resolving the nuclear dis-pute is to fix its economy with western finance, in-vestment and technology – not tie it to a faltering Russian economy saddled with its own sanctions.尽管与俄罗斯增进关系会带来短期利益,但伊朗解决核争端的目的是为了借助西方金融、投资和技术来整顿本国经济,而不是与自身还背着制裁包袱、不景气的俄罗斯经济捆绑到一起。

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